A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
