Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
